Thursday, June 4, 2009

More on today's market

Mortgage bonds opened lower, in anticipation of the massive amount of Treasury auctions. This morning the Treasury decided to pare back the amount of auctions for next week, likely sensing that the reception will be less than desirable. The additional supply to fund the various government spending programs has been weighing heavily on both the Bond market and the US Dollar. The severe erosion of the Dollar against other currencies has pushed the price of oil up significantly. This is also providing a headwind for Bonds. But there may be some hope ahead...read on.

Today's initial Jobless Claims number, a leading indicator of the health of the jobs market, met expectations at 621,000. We will need to see a siginificant inprovement in unemployment claims in order to see the labor market improve. Some of the early signs of improvement in the econlmy may be more related to a rebuilding of inventories, rather than robust sales.

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